10-year CMB, estimated daily

Canada Mortgage BondsDailySphera Credit estimate

Also shown on CMB rates: Canada Mortgage Bond yields and spreads

Series id

cmb-10y-estimate

Latest value

4.160%

As of October 1, 2026History since February 14, 2024

Source: Bank of Canada. Values marked as a Sphera Credit estimate are computed from Bank of Canada data.

Maintained by Sphera Credit

History

10-year CMB, estimated daily (Sphera Credit estimate): 4.160% on October 1, 2026.
10-year CMB, estimated daily: history since February 14, 2024.
Full 10-year CMB, estimated daily history (CSV) (Sphera Credit estimate)

Source: Bank of Canada.

How this series is built

Definition

An estimate, in percent, of the 10-year Canada Mortgage Bond yield on a business day, assuming the spread over the Government of Canada benchmark is still the initial spread at the latest 10-year syndication. It is not an observed market yield.

Source

Sphera Credit calculation from two Bank of Canada series: goc-10y (Valet series BD.CDN.10YR.DQ.YLD) and cmb-10y-new-issue-spread (Valet group CMB_PURCH).

Calculation

For each business day t with a goc-10y value on or after the first 10-year syndication: goc-10y(t) + S / 100, where S is the initial spread in basis points at the latest 10-year syndication with a trade date on or before t. On a syndication day, that day's spread is used. Rounded to three decimal places.

Formula

goc-10y(t) + cmb-10y-new-issue-spread(latest issue on or before t) / 100

Publication and dating

Daily on business days, dated like goc-10y. It moves with the benchmark yield every day and with the spread only when a new syndication is published.

Caveats

Spreads move between syndications, so the estimate can drift away from where Canada Mortgage Bonds trade as the last syndication ages.
On a syndication day it need not equal the published purchase yield: on August 19, 2026 the estimate was 3.91% (3.69% plus 22.0 basis points) against a published yield of 3.891%.
It inherits the benchmark bond changes of goc-10y: when the Bank of Canada switches the 10-year benchmark bond, the estimate moves with it.

References

Use this data

Use with your AI assistant

Connect Sphera Credit Data to your assistant once. It can then chart and analyze these series, and every value it quotes carries its source and date. The catalogue is open. Pulling a history asks you to sign in with your work email, and access is free.

Copy the prompt below and paste it into your AI assistant. The assistant adds the Sphera Credit Data connector for you, or walks you through the steps when it cannot.

Prompt for your AI assistant

Add the Sphera Credit Data MCP server to this assistant, so you can answer my questions with Canadian rate data from the Bank of Canada.

Server name: Sphera Credit Data
Server URL: https://data.spheracredit.com/mcp
Type: remote MCP server over HTTP with OAuth sign-in. It needs no API key.

More information about the tools, the data series and Sphera Credit is on this page:
https://www.spheracredit.com/en/resources/data/mcp
Browse it first, so you understand what Sphera Credit is and how this server helps me. If you cannot browse the web, continue without it.

I came from the page of the series 10-year CMB, estimated daily (series id: cmb-10y-estimate). Once you are connected, start with this series.

Then follow these steps:
1. If you can add MCP servers yourself, add this one now. Tell me what you change.
- Claude Code: claude mcp add --transport http sphera-data https://data.spheracredit.com/mcp
- Codex: codex mcp add sphera-data --url https://data.spheracredit.com/mcp
- Any other tool: use your own way to add a remote HTTP MCP server with the URL above.
2. If you cannot add it yourself, tell me how to add it in this app, one numbered step at a time, with the exact URL above. If you are not sure of the steps for this app, use the steps on the page above. Do not guess a different URL.
3. The first time you pull a rate history, a sign-in page opens. I sign in myself on that page. Do not enter my details or the emailed code for me.
4. When it is connected, call list_series to check that it works. Then tell me in two or three sentences what you can now do for me. Always give the source and the date of each value you quote.

Then ask: “Chart cmb-10y-estimate since 2024 and explain how it is calculated.”

MCP server documentation

Download or connect in Excel

Each series is a CSV file with a date column and a value column. In Excel, choose Data, then From Web, and paste the link. Refresh updates it to the latest values.

For information only. These are market reference rates. Each lender sets its own loan rates.